Economy & Policy News
Central bank decisions, macro data, fiscal policy and global economic developments.
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Fed Minutes Reveal Split on Timing of First Rate Cut
The minutes from the May FOMC meeting show a majority of officials want more progress on inflation before easing, while a minority argued the labour market slowdown already justifies a cut. Markets slightly reduced odds of a June cut.
April CPI Cools to 3.3% — Markets Rally on Rate-Cut Hopes
US consumer price inflation eased more than expected to 3.3% in April, down from 3.5% in March, driven by lower shelter and used-car prices. The softer print lifted equities and sent the two-year Treasury yield to a two-month low.
April Jobs Report: 175K Payrolls Added, Unemployment Holds at 4.1%
The US economy added 175,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, below the 240,000 consensus estimate, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-on-month, the softest reading in a year.
ECB Cuts Rates by 25bps for the First Time Since 2019
The European Central Bank lowered its main deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, the first cut since 2019. ECB President Christine Lagarde signalled caution about further easing, saying the pace of cuts will be data-dependent.
Bank of England Holds Rates at 5.25%, Two Members Vote for Cut
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to hold Bank Rate at 5.25%, but two members joining the minority calling for a cut marks a shift in the panel's tone ahead of expected summer easing.
IMF Upgrades 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 3.2%
The International Monetary Fund raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from its January estimate, citing stronger-than-expected US demand and a stabilisation of Chinese growth.
US Announces New 25% Tariffs on Steel and Aluminium Imports From EU
The Biden administration reinstated 25% tariffs on EU steel and aluminium, ending a two-year truce after talks on a global steel deal collapsed. The move prompted immediate retaliatory threats from Brussels.
China's Manufacturing PMI Contracts for Second Straight Month
China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5 in April, the second consecutive sub-50 reading, signalling a modest contraction in factory activity amid weak export orders and a sluggish property sector.
India's GDP Growth Holds at 7.8%, Fastest Among G20 Nations
India's economy expanded 7.8% in the January–March quarter, maintaining its position as the fastest-growing major economy. Infrastructure investment and strong domestic consumption drove the outperformance.
UK Inflation Falls to 2.3%, Within Striking Distance of BoE Target
UK CPI fell to 2.3% in April, its lowest reading since July 2021, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices. The data reinforces expectations for a Bank of England rate cut as early as August.
US Retail Sales Rise 0.4% in April, Beating Expectations
American consumers continued to spend in April, with retail sales advancing 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the 0.3% consensus. The resilient spending data complicates the case for an imminent Fed rate cut.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Touches 4.28% as Bond Market Recalibrates
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.28% as investors digested stronger-than-expected economic data and recalibrated expectations for the number of rate cuts in 2026.
Dollar Index Slips to 97.98 as Fed Pivot Narrative Gains Traction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to 97.98, a three-month low, as traders positioned for a Fed rate-cutting cycle starting in Q3. Dollar weakness lifted emerging market currencies and commodities priced in USD.
US Q1 GDP Revised Up to +2.4% on Stronger Business Investment
The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its first-quarter GDP estimate upward to 2.4% annualised, from a flash estimate of 2.1%, driven by stronger-than-initially-reported business fixed investment.
Geopolitical Risk Premium Fades From Oil as Middle East Tensions Ease
Brent crude slipped below $82 per barrel as the ceasefire in the Gaza conflict reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had kept energy prices elevated. Traders are now focused on OPEC+ supply decisions at the June meeting.